EPIC FURY&GAS PROBLEM 2026

Is 2026 A Happy Year?As per Gregorian Calendar, 1^st of January marks the beginning of New Calendar Year.  People across the world remain awake at the midnight of December 31^st to solemnly begin the New Year with countdowns, fireworks, parties and resolutions to start life-afresh with hope and optimism!  Within 2 months, 2 individuals have ruined the happiness of all the people in the world by declaring war in a hurry, just because of the clash of egos!  There are no permanent friends or enemies in the world.  War is not the solution and there are no winners in any war or court cases!  Peace and prosperity can be attained only through mutual love and respect for others; dialogue and mediation are the best means to resolve National and International  differences!

Iran War & Global Energy Crisis: US–Israeli military actions against Iran were prompted by the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, its support for regional proxy groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and perceived threats to regional stability following October 7, 2023 “Black Saturday” resulting in deaths of approximately 1,195 civilians and taking 250 hostages by Hamas. The aim of US-Israel was to destroy military infrastructure and prevent a nuclear armed Iran because of the failure of diplomacy and Iran’s advancements in uranium enrichment.  An internal unrest in Iran in early 2026 and brutal crackdown by Khamenei regime resulted in over 30,000 civilian deaths.  US-Israel judged it as opportune time for regime change in Iran by getting rid of top leadership, which in fact was greeted and celebrated by a section of people in Iran.  However, instead of collapsing, Iran expanded the battlefield, using drones and missiles to attack infrastructure in neighboring Gulf States and closure of Strait of Hormuz, causing a massive disruption to global energy supplies and surging oil prices.  Iran has launched widespread drone and missile attacks against all six Gulf Cooperation Council(GCC) Countries – The United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel.  The conflict spread beyond Iran because of the participation of Hezbollah of Lebanon and Houthis from Yemen in addition to ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Currently Israel is at the receiving point from multi-sided attacks by Iran, Lebanon and Yemen; there is a possibility of Israel running out of interceptors because of too many missile and rocket attacks!

Operation Epic Fury or Comedy of Errors:In a utter hurry US-Israel declared war against Iran without having recourses to The United Nations Security council (UNSC) and NATO to tame misadventure of nuclear ambitious Iran!  NATO allies, including France, Italy and Spain have resisted involvement in US-led military actions due to concerns over regional stability, humanitarian impacts and the risks of a broader conflict. Europe and China are heavily dependent on oil from the Gulf and fear disruptions in energy supply.  US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t have a clear understanding of the nature of the Iranian regime and its defensive capability.  Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, featuring a range of liquid and solid-fuel ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, cluster missiles  and hypersonic systems.  They have huge stock piles of missiles and many stored in underground “Missile Cities”. They did not anticipate Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz or inflict pain on Gulf Countries!  With a military victory now looking increasingly elusive, Trump shall have only two options: (1) Pivot to a diplomatic solution and force Netanyahu to comply; or (2) Use extensive air, naval and ground force and destroy stockpiles of missile, hidden treasure “missile cities”, missile factories and missile launch pads. Next 15 days are going to be crucial; we all need to pray that sanity and prudence may prevail upon the leaders of these countries in the greater interest of suffering humanity than gratifying only to their individuals egos! 

West Asia Crisis and Challenges of India: We are living in a global village;    India cannot be isolated from the after-shocks of natural or man-made calamities anywhere in the world!  Though Russia-Ukraine war did not have major impact on Indian economy, Middle East Instability has far-reaching implications on India.  War is threatening the security of around ten million Indians working  in gulf regions and their annual remittances approximately $125 billion annually, making the region crucial for India’s balance of payments and personal income of many families.  We are  the third largest oil consumer in the world and importing over 85% of energy requirements. We import 60% of LPG requirements of which 90% comes from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Disruptions in supply chain has already forced closure of many Restaurants and hit domestic kitchens of all rural households.  Our agriculture shall be impacted due to  fertilizer shortages and rising cost of inputs.  India is navigating the crisis very prudently by maintaining diplomatic ties with all sides and securing energy supplies and ensuring maritime trade stability.  Indian Government has wisely slashed the central excise duty on petrol by Rs. 3/litre and Rs. 10/litre to aid oil firms facing high import costs! 

Past Perfect & Future Imperfect:In general Indians have a habit of glorifying the past and predicting the gloom in the future.  Past was never perfect; there were many ugly situations, but in the course of time people have forgotten about it. Erasingunpleasant memories or healing the disturbed conscience is very important for human happiness. In the 45 years (1980-2025), many extreme things have taken place; however, those who remained deaf and dumb and stayed focused on the financial goals of their families earned 15.51% CAGR based on the movement of Sensex from 100 to 85,221 as on 31-12-2025!Each of these decades had most horrifying tragedies such as India Gandhi assassination, Soviet Invasion of Afghan, Latin America Debt Crisis, Bhopal Gas Tragedy and Fall of Soviet Union during 1980-1990; Global Oil Crisis, Gulf War, Harshad Mehta Scam, Bombay Blast, Kargil War, Indian Airlines Hijack during 1990-2000 period; Dotcom Bubble, Ketan Parekh Scam, 9/11 Attacks, Afghanistan War, Global Financial Crisis during 2000 -2010; Coal Scam, 2G Scam, High Inflation & CAD, QE Tapering, Demonetization during 2010-2020 and Covid-19, Russia-Ukraine War, Phalgan Attack, and now West Asia Crisis…..! Only those who had hope and optimism have earned wealth through prudent investment opportunities created by rise and fall of markets.

Historical SENSEX Declines & Recoveries: Let this Article be a reference point to hold your emotions and to mind your own business rather than dancing everyday due to geopolitical crisis!  You needto have faith in Indian Economy as well as financial well-being of your family members.  Simple and innocent people make money because they remain deaf and dumb to daily volatility whereas as smart and knowledgeable seldom make money due to too much knowledge of past or future.

• 1986-1988 Market Decline (-41%)due to economic uncertainty, weak regulations & infrastructure, declining global commodity prices and rising inflation.  Prompt economic reforms boosted confidence, corporate earning improved due to government support and increased domestic participation.

• 1990 Market Decline (-39%)due to Kuwait invasion by Saddam Hussein, Political instability in India and weak fiscal health.  Stabilization of oil prices post gulf-war, renewed investor confidence followed by political stability and bold economic measures boosted the market within 6 months.

• 1992-1994 Market Decline (-54%)due to Harshad Mehta’s Scam and weak regulatory systems in India. However, stringent measures by SEBI, increased transparency in the financial system and strong fundaments lifted up the Indian Markets.

• 1998-1999 Market Decline (-35%)due to severe economic downturn in Southeast Asia, global sanctions in consequence to India’s nuclear tests and weak international demand. India’s robust internal market support and economic stability policies lifted up the markets within short period.

• 2000-2001 Market Decline (-56%)due to dot-com bubble burst, economic slowdown and 9/11 terrorist attacks caused market disruptions. However, continued economic reforms, flow of FDI and boom in IT sector changed the situation for better.

• 2008-2009 Market Decline (-61%)on account of subprime crisis, collapse of major financial institutions, global credit crisis and heavy foreign outflows. The situation changed due to rapid monetary easing by global central banks and surge in domestic investor confidence followed by inflows of FDI.

• 2020 Market Decline (-38%)due to Covid-19 pandemic, lock-downsand halt in economic activity worldwide, fear of prolonged economic recession pulled down the market. But quick adaptation to remote work, rise in digital economy, strong fiscal and monetary stimulus from government and RBI along with participation by retain investors lifted up the markets.

• 2026 Market Decline (-11.49%)due to The United States and Israel launching coordinated, massive airstrikes against Iran resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran hitting back Israel as well as Gulf Countries and closing of Straight of Hormuz causing disruption in energy chain.

Historical facts are before you.  Every calamity is an opportunity for the bold investors. Next 30 days are best for long-term investments in staggered manner. Current crisis is short-lived, except for Dubai which may need longer time to gain faith and confidence of high-profiled investors.

Joseph Menezes