FIGHTS & WARS: Animals fight primarily to survive and reproduce, driven by the need to secure essential resources like food, water, and territory, as well as to win mates and protect their young. However, human beings fight each other due to a complex mix of instinctual, psychological, and environmental factors, driven by the need to secure resources (land, water, food), gain power, or protect their group’s ideology. Most of the time ego and power for supremacy initiates disputes which gradually spread like wildfire in the absence of rationalism and morality. Right from the beginning of creation, human beings are at war. History of warfare spans from prehistoric, small-scale tribal conflicts to modern, industrial, and global wars. Major conflicts have evolved from ancient struggles for territory (Punic Wars) to medieval crusades, the Napoleonic era, and the devastating 20thcentury world wars. In the recent era it has culminated in possessing Nuclear Powers.
TYPES OF ADMINISTRATION: Governments worldwide are primarily classified as Democracies (power held by people), Monarchies (rule by hereditary king or queen), or Dictatorship Regimes (authoritarian or totalitarian control by one). Major types include Parliamentary Republics, Constitutional Monarchies, Absolute Monarchies, and One-party states. Absolute Monarchies, suicide bombing and terrorism are the recent curses of humanity. Mass destruction weapons in the hands of Dictators, Absolute Monarchies and Extremists are the biggest threat for humanity because any extreme mental disturbance of one person can cause extensive destruction to humanity. Unfortunately some of the Countries are ruled by religious fanatics or Absolute Monarchies for decades and nobody could correct or oppose them because of the fear of death penalty. Fidel Castro of Cuba held power for 49 years from 1959- to 2008; Kim II-sung of North Korea held power for 45 years from 1948 to 1994 and Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea holding power since 1979 till now (44 years). Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi, Libyan Military Officer ruled for 42 years. Some of the top Dictators like Kim Jong-un of North Korea, Bashar al-Assad of Syria and Ali Khamenei of Iran are holding powers for a long time by depriving civilian liberty and there is an urgency for the regime change!
CAUSE OF IRAN USA CONFLICT: Israel and Iran are in conflict due to a longstanding ideological and geopolitical rivalry, primarily centered on Iran’s nuclear program, its support for anti-Israel proxy groups (like Hezbollah and Hamas), and Iran’s calls for Israel’s destruction, leading to a cycle of escalating proxy wars and direct, brief military clashes, most recently in 2024-2025, involving missile strikes, assassinations, and cyberattacks, with Israel seeing Iran as an existential threat. Iran’s nuclear ambitions began under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, with support from the United States and Western Europe. In 1957, Iran and the US signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement as part of President Dwight Eisenhower’s “Atoms for Peace” program. However, in 2015 Iran breached ‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA and started increasing Uranium Enrichment from 3.67% to 60% which has cased a major concern for global community and particularly to Israel. Power in the hands of insane people is dangerous!
IMPLICATIONS OF IRAN USA WAR: Total collapse of recent nuclear diplomacy in Oman and Switzerland has compelled US-Israeli coalition signaling a shift from containment to active regime change in Iran. Intentions of US-Israel coalition is to carry out targeted surgical strikes with minimal civilian casualties and a transition to democracy or compelling Iran to moderate it’s nuclear policies. If the goal is achieved within a week, the global implications may be limited. If not, middle east region shall be destabilized with total disruption in civil aviation, trade movements and substantial rise in oil prices. Gold and Silver may see fireworks on Monday and Equity Markets across the globe may have big corrections.
ADMONITION TO INVESTORS: Investors should exercise patience and should not press panic button. Be bold when the world becomes fearful and take advantage of market corrections and invest the surplus in gradual manner after providing for the liquidity for 18 months. Unlike Russia Ukrainian War, this war shall be short-lived because the ultimate intention here is only regime change or moderation in nuclear policy and no territorial disputes. Out of desperation, Iran may cause damage to neighboring countries harboring US bases; but this shall work against it’s own interest. Stay focused on the financial goals of your family and stay invested in good and bad markets. Life would never be bed of roses; rise and fall (volatility) is the part and parcel of Equity Investments.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2026: In general domestic economic factors are favorable at this point, except for the geopolitical crisis such as Russia Ukraine War which may have early end in this year and Iran US War would have limited implication if the intended goal is achieved within a week. We pray that prudence and moderation may prevail upon all the global leaders and wisdom may guide them to respect freedom and religion of all countries. There are no winners in wars and court cases; dialogue and mediation is the best means to resole the conflict.
-By Joseph Menezes, Fortune Life Wealth Pvt. Ltd.
